Further refinement of data

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Posted by Rich-CA on May 09, 2008 at 09:03:57:

In Reply to: FANTASTIC EXAMPLE posted by Kenneth Hocking on May 08, 2008 at 12:10:14:

In the specific city where I live, our neighborhood is high mid. The homes along the ridge line with a panoramic view of the SF bay are higher (generally in the 900k+ range). According to the Sunday paper, which publishes all the closings for the week, there were a dozen houses that closed, the lowest a 2/1 at $289k, the highest a 5/4 at $954k. However in our County, we are the mid range. Moving from west the central, you find that our high-mid is now the low mid and the sales activity is almost 6 times what it is here. Then on to east county we have prices that are below ours. This is almost exactly where activity was 10 years ago. About the same volume too.

Now as to income. The people in the tech fields have been generally above average in pay, but not by much. Census data is way old. The last full collection of data was in 2000 with updates being done by statistical sampling methods. These updates are then forecast forward. As such, its only as good as the sample selection.

For example, the person across the street works for the Post Office. His wife works part time. They bought their house in 2003. Not late on their house payments, have a Mercedes and two BMWs, and SUV and a classic Harley.

In our neighborhood of 459 houses, we have had 10 foreclosures. We have firemen, police and teachers for neighbors. Now around here, they are advertising starting salaries for Policy at from $63k to $75k depending on which agency. Fire makes more. This is a far cry from the $54k statewide average. They make their numbers work because living here is more important to them that living in some places loaded with rednecks (which CAN include some central valley locations and even areas in east county).

Now the rental market, those tend to move with the job figures (as well as the supply of units) more than owner occupant does. This is because renting is a temporary situation and is viewed by the tenant as being temporary. Most people have so little understanding of economics that the buy vs rent equation is foreign to them. Many even have trouble with supply and demand.

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