I wrote my first forecast for commercial real estate in 2000, and thankfully I got most of it right. At the time I made what many considered to be an overly-bullish statement designed to promote my first book and CRE Online's new commercial real estate forum.

I said then, "[I] believe that some of the highest appreciation gains in real estate ever seen will occur in the next eight to ten years." I nailed the forecast, though the run-up didn't last the full ten years.

Most agree that for commercial real estate the high water mark was Sam Zell's sale of Equity Office REIT for $39 billion in early 2007, but other would argue for early 2008.

I continued to write articles and forecasts every year through 2008. In truth, those were easy years. In an expanding market, almost all projections are to the upside. Even flawed strategies can be profitable, though less so than the high flying winners. A lot of people jumped on the bandwagon, and it was hard not to make money.

Then came the chaos and confusion...

Starting in late summer 2008, I began to collect the data and do the research for a 2009 forecast. By then, it was evident that economic conditions were very unstable and getting worse by the week. The capital markets seized up, and by early fall it was a surreal scene of chaos and confusion.

Finally in November--after re-writing the forecast three times--I gave up. We'd just experienced an incredible thirty days that included the fire sale of Bear Stearns, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the bailout of AIG, and the forced merger of Bank of America and Merrill Lynch.

Wall Street as we knew it was gone like a puff of smoke in a windstorm. The government was the only lender left standing, and any hope I had of figuring out what would happen next was an illusion.

In December, I turned my attention to forming a 2009 strategic plan for my own company, in which I am partners with my brothers. Regardless of the chaotic conditions, we still had to chart a course for our own portfolio.

In a nutshell, we felt that as bad as things seemed, the markets would settle down, and there would eventually be buying opportunities. One of our primary strategies was to target distressed retail acquisitions in the second half of the year.

...from chaos and confusion to utter disaster

By March 2009, almost the entire strategic plan was in the trash. Consumer spending plunged and retailers of all types hit the stop button on expansions. Vacancies in existing centers were rising and demand falling. Distress had turned to an ongoing disaster, and any attempt to forecast a bottom was like trying to catch a falling knife.

In the end, we made two acquisitions last year (both in the office sector) and completed one refinancing. That was it for the year, and in late fall I turned my focus to trying to get a better fix on what would come in 2010.

I read reams of reports, newsletters, trade publications, and articles by writers I respect and admire for their honesty and intelligence. I spend tens of thousands of dollars every year on information in an effort to see around corners.

My worst-case scenario is to be caught behind the curve of events and not be able to change direction in time to avoid a crack-up. The past year has tested that scenario not just once or twice, but multiple times.

Time for a new plan

As I did the research for our plan, it was apparent I would have to go much deeper than previous years to avoid the fate of the 2008 plan. To get ahead of the curve took months of analysis. This is the sixth recession of my career--but easily the worst since 1981.

There are some parallels to past downturns, and we have dusted off those old play books to find strategies that apply to the present. But this recession has several key differences that demand different responses than in the past.

The result is perhaps the most deeply researched forecast I have ever written for publication. It is essentially the blueprint for my own company's investments not just the coming year, but for the next several years as we settle into a "new normal."

Something unlike anything you've seen before...

This forecast is a massive amount of information that will take several readings to digest. For the first time I am including the source data I used to formulate my opinions. The information is drawn from the multitude of writers and sources that I've relied on for many years to plot our company's course. I am indebted to them all.

The forecast contains my best thinking on the impact of the factors most important to commercial real estate--the capital markets, valuations, and local market dynamics. It details the sectors that are poised for growth; those destined for more pain; and how to identify true opportunities.

In my opinion, the most valuable information is the discussion of the deal structures that will be most successful and how to develop investment plans and obtain financing to support them.

If you are serious about investing in commercial real estate this is a must-read report. The window of opportunity to take advantage of the "negative bubble" in asset prices created by recessions only lasts a short time.

This forecast details what is needed to prepare to make successful investments over the next two years. You have time to get prepared--but only if you start now.

For more details of the subjects included in the forecast the Table of Contents is available here. The report is over 50 pages of facts, figures, charts and data that provide an unprecedented look inside the strategic plan of an active commercial real estate investment firm.

This is the inside information you need to develop your own strategic plan to profit from the best opportunity to acquire income producing properties in a generation.

The Forecast will be available for a limited time, and quantities are limited.

2010 Commercial Real Estate Forecast

For a limited time Ray has agreed to make his 2010 Commercial Real Estate Forecast available FREE with the purchase of the just-released Dealmaker's Guide Video Seminar: Getting Started in Commercial Real Estate, a two-hour DVD and Workbook package or his comprehensive home study course Dealmaker's Guide to Commercial Real Estate.